Human ingenuity: How Covid makes the case for optimism
A few days ago, a friend of mine and I discussed over dinner how 2022 will be remembered. Most obviously, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will go down infamously in history. But 2022 will not only stand for aggression and war. It will also be seen as a pivotal moment for humanity. In 2022, we finally beat one of the most aggressive and dangerous viruses in history—at least, we are very close to beating it. This year marks the victory of science over pandemic, of research over superstition, of democracy over autocracy, and of open debate over censorship.
A recent study published in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases has calculated how vaccines have helped to counter the spread of Covid-19 (see infographic below). Public health statistics from 185 countries and territories have been considered. China has been excluded, as its strict lockdown policy would have distorted statistics. The red columns on the bottom show excess mortality caused by the virus. Sad as they are, these numbers speak against all those conspiracy theories claiming that Covid did not exist or cause any harm. No, it clearly did cause harm, and it has ended many lives prematurely. Yes, Covid did cause excess mortality—more people died than they would have without the pandemic. This is the tragic truth about three years of Covid-19.
But the numbers also show how bravely and ingeniously humanity fought back. The upper red line and the green area below illustrate how many lives have been saved with modern vaccines. As we all know, these pharmaceuticals did not exist when Covid started. In the case of mRNA vaccines such as Biontech / Pfizer and Moderna, not even the technology that led to these highly successful drugs existed.
Comparing Covid to earlier pandemics such as the Black Plague, we clearly see that science and technology were our saviors. It wasn’t miracles, wonders, gods, or magicians that liberated us, but the virtues of empirical study. Rigorous science has produced stunning results: evidence-based research, knowledge sharing, public scrutiny, open debate, and vocal discourse did the trick as much as the battle of fact and counterfact. Nothing is ever true—it simply has not been proven wrong. Philosopher Karl Popper’s method of falsification has once again saved us from the catastrophic consequences of bad judgment.
Much has been said about the systematic conflict between democracy and autocracy. Yes, democracies appear to be slow, messy, noisy, and complicated. They always seem to be later than autocracies. They seem to lose out on efficiency. But Covid proves once again that this notion is wrong. Democracies won this battle for public health. Their open debate and multilayered plural approaches to problem solving have produced much better vaccines and superior vaccination strategies. Russian and Chinese vaccines did not live up to their early promises and are delivering inferior results. Central policies with few questions asked protected public health far worse than lively (if sometimes chaotic) debate. Diverse funding from public and private sources supported effective solutions far better than centralized approaches.
Despite all the pain Covid victims and their families experienced, at the end of 2022, we find good cause for optimism. Hundreds of years back, before enlightenment and the scientific revolution, the Black Plague killed between a quarter and a third, or sometimes as much as a half, of the communities it befell. Decades and even centuries were marked and formed by the Black Plaque. In our days, Covid was almost beaten within three years (with the possible exception of China), having claimed far less than 0.1% of mankind.
Medical technology will continue to improve our lives. This is why we at CeramTec and MedTech Pulse will proudly continue to report on breakthroughs and recent developments.
